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Public sector information (PSI, the information held by governments) is very valuable and its value is expecting to increase in the next decades. The first PSI European Union directive is dated 2003 (2003/98/EC) and it has been amended after ten years, in 2013 (2013/37/EU). However, it presented many limitations and in fact the European Commission launched a public consultation in late 2017. The consultation received many feedbacks (slightly less than 300), including one from the energy modelling community (download), that is definitely worth reading because it summarises in its 23 pages the current limitations in licenses, data access & quality and fair use.

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During the last summer the water temperature in some important rivers (especially the Rhine and the Rhone) in central Europe was so high that some nuclear and coal power plants in Germany, France and Switzerland had to limit their generation or even shut down due to the regulations imposing them to do not discharge the warm water used for cooling the plant when the river temperature was too high. It was July, during a heatwave strong enough to deserve a Wikipedia page.

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We can easily say that the Copernicus Climate Change (C3S) initiative is definitely shaping the field of climate services. I might have said “Climate Science” instead of “Climate Services”, but I want to focus here on the applicative side of the climate science. The Copernicus Climate Change (C3S) initiative and the CDS The best thing of the C3S is that they are trying to foster the creation of a ecosystem of data services and — not surprisingly — software (design, development, architecture) plays a critical role here.

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I have recently moved in North Holland and in the past weeks the weather was particularly fortunate: for many (consecutive) days there was no rain and the temperature have been very high for this area (the maximum temperature was easily above 25° degrees). Given that I have no experience yet for this weather, I asked around how frequently this happens and I got diverse answers. Then, I have decided to look at some historical time-series of temperature and precipitation to try to satisfy my curiosity.

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To evaluate the performances of the probabilistic forecasts provided by seasonal forecasting it is very common the use of skill scores. A skill score is normally defined as a ratio between a specific accuracy measure computed on the forecast and the same measure applied to a reference forecast. In the case of seasonal forecasts, as reference forecast is commonly used the climatological probability, that is the observed frequency of the target event (the event predicted by the forecast) in the past.

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Selected Publications

Air temperature is an effective predictor for electricity demand, especially during hot periods where the need of electric air conditioning can be high. This paper presents for the first time an assessment of the use of seasonal climate forecasts of temperature for medium-term electricity demand prediction…
Applied Energy, 2014

Electricity demand forecasting is a critical task for energy management of power grids. Due to the wide use of refrigeration and residential air-conditioning devices, electricity demand in Italy is influenced by weather conditions, especially during summer…
Electric Power Systems Research, 2013

Recent Publications

More Publications

. Photovoltaic generation forecast for power transmission scheduling: A real case study. Solar Energy, 2018.

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. Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: An overview of the C3S ECEM project. Advances in Science and Research, 2018.

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. What is users' next best alternative to the use of dynamical seasonal predictions?. EarthArXiv Preprints, 2018.

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. Data-driven upscaling methods for regional photovoltaic power estimation and forecast using satellite and numerical weather prediction data. Solar Energy, 2017.

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. Status quo of the air-conditioning market in europe: Assessment of the building stock. Energies, 2017.

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Recent & Upcoming Talks

5 Mar 2018 1:00 PM

Projects

JRC WEFE-ENERGY

Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem

C3S ECEM

European Climatic Energy Mixes

H2020 MED-GOLD

Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat food systems

H2020 S2S4E

Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction For Energy

H2020 SECLI-FIRM

the Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Interreg V-A STRATUS

Strategie Ambientali per un Turismo Sostenibile

FP7 EUPORIAS

European Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale

FP7 SPECS

European Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale

FP7 CLIM-RUN

Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs

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