Seasonal forecasts

Which reference forecast for seasonal forecasting?

To evaluate the performances of the probabilistic forecasts provided by seasonal forecasting it is very common the use of skill scores. A skill score is normally defined as a ratio between a specific accuracy measure computed on the forecast and the same measure applied to a reference forecast. In the case of seasonal forecasts, as reference forecast is commonly used the climatological probability, that is the observed frequency of the target event (the event predicted by the forecast) in the past.

What is users' next best alternative to the use of dynamical seasonal predictions?

C3S ECEM

European Climatic Energy Mixes

H2020 S2S4E

Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction For Energy

H2020 SECLI-FIRM

the Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

FP7 EUPORIAS

European Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale

FP7 SPECS

European Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale

FP7 CLIM-RUN

Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs